FanBoardHQ

Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky University · 2025 · Conference USA

FanBoardHQ CFP
#68
Efficiency
-5.9
86th FBS
Record
9-4
Conf. record
6-2
Conf. finish
3rd
of 12
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Western Kentucky went 9-4 and was ranked 68th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 80th-ranked defense carried them, with an 88th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 58% of offensive plays with a 107th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 42% of plays with an 84th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-2
Q3
1-0
Q4
8-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 9.0 wins
Strength of Record
59th
-2.3 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
127th
full season
127th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
120th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
0vs Sam HoustonConference USA#133W 4124+23.6100%-15.1Q4
1vs North AlabamaUACW 556+23.5100%11.1Q4
2@ ToledoMid-American#59L 2145-14.80%-24.1Q2
4vs NevadaMountain West#125W 3116+14.2100%-7.0Q4
5@ Missouri StateConference USA#85W 2722+0.4100%-0.6Q4
6@ DelawareConference USA#98W 2724+6.7100%-6.8Q4
8vs FIUConference USA#89L 625+9.00%-34.9Q4
9@ Louisiana TechConference USA#75W 2827-4.4100%5.5Q3
10vs New Mexico StateConference USA#119W 3516+11.7100%4.4Q4
12vs Middle TennesseeConference USA#129W 4226+17.0100%-7.7Q4
13@ LSUSEC#41L 1013-18.50%9.9Q2
14@ Jacksonville StateConference USA#83L 3437+3.00%-10.4Q4
Postseason
vs Southern MissSun Belt#95W 2716+5.2100%-1.1Q4

13 played · 9-4. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Western Kentucky, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-31.2-11.9+7.5-1511-24-7-1-7-3564-810-10Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 107th
SR 99thYPP 111thEPA 111th
RushingEff 84th
SR 80thYPP 83rdEPA 86th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 94th
SR 68thYPP 105thEPA 100th
Rush defenseEff 104th
SR 68thYPP 125thEPA 102nd
Dropback rate 58%Tempo +3.8 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 99th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 41%1st2nd · Offense: 44%2nd · Defense allowed: 32%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 46%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 36%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 71.0Q1 · Allowed: 63.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 119.0Q2 · Allowed: 99.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 79.0Q3 · Allowed: 68.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 93.0Q4 · Allowed: 42.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledWestern KentuckyOffenseDefense
Western Kentucky Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 88th
-3.3
Field position: -1.0Finishing drives: -2.3
Field position -1.0Finishing drives -2.3= -3.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 96th · Finishing 83rd

Defensive EffRanked 80th
-1.8
Field position: -0.8Finishing drives: -1.0
Field position -0.8Finishing drives -1.0= -1.8
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 96th · Finishing 74th

2.12 points per drive on offense, 1.56 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 28.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(222)62% / 38%44%5.6
Q2(249)65% / 35%40%5.5
Q3(205)58% / 42%48%6.4
Q4(223)42% / 58%45%6.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(196)10.145%7.4
2nd(161)8.742%7.0
3rd(140)7.344%5.6
4th(14)3.736%3.9
All (511)44%6.7
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(207)9.742%4.7
2nd(137)7.246%5.2
3rd(41)5.856%5.0
4th(3)5.733%1.0
All (388)45%4.9

Western Kentucky, all games.